Like no other time in history, the BJP/NDA led by Prime Minister, Narendra Modi is all set to make major inroads into the two Telugu states of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana in the General elections 2024

Success in the 42 Lok Sabha seats (25 in AP and 17 in Telangana) will mark the expansion of the BJP into the South beyond Karnataka. This is vital as the Modi government, seeking a third term is expected to lose seats in its strongholds in UP, Bihar, MP, Haryana, Rajasthan etc.

The best performance of the saffron party in the Telugu states was in the 2019 elections in Telangana. The BJP won 4 seats on its own ( Karimnagar, Secunderabad, Adilabad and Nizamabad). In AP, however, it hit rock bottom with under one percent of the vote share as the Y S Jaganmohan Reddy wave swept all opposition away. The YSR Congress had won 22 of the 25 LS seats and the Telugu Desam Party led by N Chandrababu Naidu bagged the remaining 3 seats.

In the 2024 elections now in the final stages, the BJP is making a strong bid in Telangana while it has stitched up an alliance with the TDP and Jana Sena Party (JSP) of K Pawan Kalyan, the powerstar of Tollywood to take on the YSR Congress Party. Many surveys and political analysts have given the BJP significantly higher number of seats in the LS compared to 2019, when it bagged just 4 in the two states.

The young Telangana State is where the BJP is pinning its maximum hopes. No wonder that Modi and Amit Shah addressed atleast a dozen political rallies across the length and breadth of the State before the polling on May 13. The optimism for an impressive performance by the party has arisen essentially because of the decline of the Bharat Rastra Samithi (BRS) of K Chandrasekhar Rao.

In the November 2023 State Legislative Assembly, the BRS suffered a jolt when it lost power to the Cong(I) led by Anumula Revanth Reddy. It managed to win 39 (down from 88 in 2018) while the Cong(I) got 64, the BJP won 8, the AIMIM-7 and CPI-1 in the 119 member House. The family run BRS leadership got so dispirited and cadre demoralised that it found it difficult to field strong candidates in the 17 LS constituencies.

The weakening of the BRS and its lackadaisical approach to the Parliament elections opened up huge opportunities for both the Cong(I) and the BJP. Soon, it boiled down to a direct fight between the national parties from an anticipated triangular contest. The BRS in its original TRS ( Telangana Rastra Samithi) had 9 seats in the 2019 elections. On top of it, the party lost some of its sitting MPs to both the national parties.

Sensing the opportunity, the BJP decided to go in for the kill. It used the ‘Carrot and Stick’ approach against the political parties, especially the BRS. Through a combination of lure and threat of the investigating agencies the Modi Govt put pressure. The arrest of Kalvakuntla Kavitha, a sitting MLC and former MP from Nizamabad and top of it the daughter of KCR was arrested by the ED in the infamous Delhi Liquor Policy scam. Incidentally, Delhi minister Manish Sisodia had already been imprisoned in the case and the CM, Arvind Kejriwal too put behind bars in the Tihar Jail.

The high pitched campaign by the Modi-Shah duo, the possible shift in BRS votes to the BJP and the confusion and delay in the Cong(I) in selection of candidates, the Ayodhya factor and the promise of industrial development in rural Telangana are all factors that can shore up the BJP tally this time to 7-8. Though, Amit Shah has set an ambitious target and claims to win 14.

On the other hand, the Cong(I), which began on a confident note post its impressive victory in the Assembly elections seemed to be losing steam as the May 13 polling day approached. Initial indications were that it would cross the double digit mark. But, by the end of the campaigning it’s tally seems to be slipping to around 8. The MIM leader, Asaduddin Owaisi is more or less assured of the Hyderabad seat, which the Party has been holding since 1984. The confusion in selection of candidates till the last minute in some constituencies and preferring defectors from BRS has angered the party loyalists.

Win Win in AP for BJP:

The simultaneous elections to the LS and State Assembly have made the contest in AP bitter and a no holds barred between the aging and maverick, 74 year old Chandrababu Naidu and the 51 year old Y S Jaganmohan Reddy, son of Dr Y S Rajasekhara Reddy ( CM of united AP during 2004-09). Naidu, who was a friend-turned-rival of YSR, is now locked in a ‘Do or Die’ battle with Jagan.

In a desperate bid, his TDP has tied up with BJP at the behest of Pawan Kalyan, who is emerging as the key player in the 2024 elections. A good section of the Pollsters, media and political experts are giving a thumbs up to the alliance in cashing in on the anti-incumbency and authoritarian rule of YS Jagan. The NDA alliance is expected to win a majority of the LS seats. It true on June 4, the BJP which got a good share of 6 seats could end up with 2-3 at least. It would mark, not just the opening of its base but also an opportunity to grow in the State, where it’s presence has been marginalised in the last decade since for the bifurcation of AP in 2014. The BJP had its best time the united AP when it won a total of 6 seats under the PM, A B Vajpayee and Naidu’s TDP in the NDA in 1999. Four of the seats were from the present, residual AP State. Incidentally, two MPs also became Union Ministers.

But, the best part of the 2024 elections for the BJP and NDA is the scenario where it is perceived to be the beneficiary whoever wins the majority of the seats. The Jagan led YSR CP has been a supporter of the Modi Govt throughout 2019-24 on all issues in the Parliament. In return, the Modi government did not put any pressure on the multiple cased in which Jagan is involved. During the present campaign too the BJP did not attack Jagan much and it was vice versa. Therefore, a win by Naidu or Jagan implies boost in numbers and support to the Modi and NDA, is the common refrain.

The expectations are high and suspense heightened due to the high percentage of voting-82% up from 79% in 2019.

The question on everybody’s mind is how much will the BJP gain in the two Telugu states in 2024? It could be a critical factor in the post result scenario on June 4.