In Kerala LDF, UDF and NDA make every effort to woo Muslims and Christians. But who will win the ‘minorities’ vote in the coming Lok Sabha elections? The Muslims and Christians, who constitute a considerable portion of the state’s population– 27 per cent and 18 per cent, respectively–play a decisive role in most elections. Minority votes keep shifting, depending on the existing political scenario at both state and national levels, perceived threats, persuasion and new developments.
A significant political shift visible since 2019 elections is a polarisation to counter the Modi wave or what is perceived as pro-BJP consolidation. An anti-Modi response was visible in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, when BJP lost 14 per cent of its votes compared to the 2014 elections, according to a survey report. In an election where Sabarimala women entry issues created major ripples, it was not surprising for Muslim voters to shift en masse to non-BJP fronts. While BJP got just 2 per cent of Muslim votes, the LDF and UDF scored 65 and 30 percent respectively. Noticeably, an almost similar trend was seen in Christian votes too, with the BJP losing 7 per cent of the Christian vote share in 2019 elections from 2014. At the same time, UDF recorded a 5 per cent rise in its Christian vote share while LDF suffered a 2 per cent dip. That there had been a massive consolidation of anti-BJP votes from the minority kitty was very evident. It was, however, the UDF who turned out to be the lone beneficiary, bagging 70 per cent of Christian voted and 65 per cent of Muslim votes.
Traditionally, the UDF with a strong Muslim League and the most dependable Kerala Congress allies, has benefited from minority votes in Kerala. The Left on the other hand, does not have such fixed deposit of minority votes, despite it having the Indian National League and a few minor Kerala Congress allies in its kitty. The Left seems to have succeeded to some extent in its efforts to win Christian votes. This time, the ruling BJP at the Centre has handed the Left several golden opportunities in the form of Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), Palestine issue and Ram temple. The Congress’s timid response to these sensitive issues has given hopes to the Left.
Amid the LDF UDF tussle to win over Muslim voters, there is a stealthy attempt by the BJP led NDA, to woo Christians. A host of national issues like Manipur, ill treatment of Chritians elsewhere in North India, the fishermen protest in Vizhinjam are more deep rooted than portrayed. One can see BJP nurturing its ambitious Christian outreach programme, the LDF going all out to humour Christians bishops across denominations and the UDF banking on its traditional support basis.
The UDF hopes to retain its 65-70 per cent minority votes. The LDF wants to poll at least 35 per cent of votes that would ensure victory in key constituencies. The BJP aims to carve out its own niche among minorities. The shift in vote pattern among Muslims and Christians usually decides the winner. This time too, things are not going to be different.
Come elections, Kerala politics shows its true colours. Right from seat sharing to candidate selection and allotment of cabinet berths, caste and religious permutations have always played a crucial role. It would be wrong to assume that progressive Kerala voters are solely ideology driven. All three fronts-LDF, UDF and NDA usually leave caste equations undisturbed, even as they balance out religious ones. The more progressive Kerala claims to be, the more regressive appears the clout of castiest groups in its society.
As campaigning for the polls moves to the final lap, the two political fronts have met with an unexpected stumbling block. Days after the ruling CPM and the opposition Congress moved the Central Election Commission against Doordarshan’s telecast of controversial movie, “The Kerala Story”, three prominent factions of the Catholic SyroMalabar Church have come forward to screen the movie among the faithful.
Criticizing the screening of the film as part of an attempt to malign Kerala image to malign Kerala’ image, CPM leaders say “They seek to portray Kerala as a hotbed of communalism, which is far from the truth”.
