The 2024 Lok Sabha elections witnessed the minorities, including the Muslim community, becoming a prominent, albeit frequently unnoticed influence, posing a threat to the dominant Hindutva party led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.Although Muslim ministers are conspicuously absent in Modi’s third cabinet, the election results show a notable shift in areas with sizable minority populations, indicating the community’s calculated vote against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
The numbers say it all. Witness this: Of the 96 constituencies where the Muslim population exceeds 20%, the India Bloc managed to secure 55 seats, which is a significant improvement compared to the 19 seats they had won during the 2019 elections. These constituencies are predominantly concentrated in Assam, West Bengal, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh (UP), Delhi, Maharashtra, and Kerala, with sprinklings in Haryana, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh (MP), and Telangana.
A prominent headline in Pakistan’s daily Dawn reads, “India defeats hate-Modi left at the mercy of Muslim friendly allies”,underscoring the considerable impact of Muslim voters. International media, notably The Guardian, has been critical of Modi’s anti-Muslim campaign rhetoric. Yet, mainstream Indian media have largely disregarded the boiling discontent among the 20% minority population, with some commentators ridiculing it as “vote jihad”.
A prominent figure from the Muslim community asserted that the act of strategic voting was intended to thwart the BJP as opposed to explicitly supporting any one political party. This approach has clearly and noticeably influenced the results of elections in various critical states.
| Year of elections | Total seats with more than 20% Minorities | NDA-BJP | Non NDA-India bloc |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 96 | 77 | 19 |
| 2024 | 96 | 41 | 55 |
In certain states, notably Assam, concerns have arisen regarding the nationality of minority communities and the creation of detention facilities for those suspected of being non-Indian. The voting trends exhibit an atypical pattern, which mirrors this circumstance.
Eight of the fourteen Lok Sabha constituencies in Assam have a Muslim population over 20%. The vote percentage indicates that these communities have conveyed their discontentment with the policies of the ruling BJP. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) earned 37.43% of the votes, while the primary opposition party, the Indian National Congress, garnered 37.48%.
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has a comparatively lower total voting percentage when taking into account the percentages of votes cast for India bloc organisations such as TMC, CPI, CPIM, and two regional parties. Nevertheless, the AsomGanaParishad (AGP), which is an ally of the BJP, holds a vote share of 6.46%, allowingit to retain a competitive edge.
The allocation of Lok Sabha seats does not exactly represent this voting trend due to substantial delimitation, which has led to a more equitable distribution of population across most constituencies. However, out of the eight Lok Sabha seats where the Muslim population exceeds 20%, only three were secured by political parties other than the BJP. One of these seats was won by AGP, a BJP collaborator.
It needs to be reiterated that, despite having won only three seats, the Congress party established itself as a formidable competitor in eight of Assam’s 14 seats, all of which have a Muslim population over 20%. This signifies a significant degree of dissatisfaction with the governing party within these groups.
In the neighbouring state of West Bengal, out of its 42 Lok Sabha constituencies, 21 have a significant percentage of Muslim voters, ranging from 20 % to as high as 60%. It is clear that the India Bloc, particularly the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC), has successfully consolidated minority votes. Of the 21 seats up for grabs, India Bloc parties secured an impressive 19, while TMC successfully regained two seats from BJP. This setback resulted in a notable decrease in BJP’s vote count, dropping from 18 seats in 2019 to a mere 12 seats in the recently concluded elections. TMC maintained a consistent lead of seven percent over BJP in terms of voting percentage, securing 45.76% of the total votes polled in the state.
Nonetheless, in Bihar, out of the nine seats where minorities represent between 20% and 60% of the population, the India Bloc parties could only secure three seats. This suggests a split in the votes, with a sizeable portion going to the BJP-aligned Janata Dal-United (JD-U).
Uttar Pradesh witnessed a distinct consolidation of minority ballots in favour of the India Bloc parties comprising the Samajwadi Party and the Indian National Congress, with a combined voting percentage of 43.05%, which is two percent higher than the ruling BJP’s. In the 2019 elections, the India Bloc managed to secure 11 out of the 22 seats where the minorities hold significant influence. This resulted in the capture of five seats previously held by the BJP.
In Delhi,though, the India Bloc drew blank although there were two constituencies in which the minority votes mattered.
However, in Haryana, the India Bloc managed to recover one seat, Ambala, from the BJP. Despite this, the incumbent party retained control over the other two seats, where the minority community constitutes almost 30% of the total population.
In Karnataka, the India Bloc reclaimed two seats from the BJP out of four where minorities could cast a deciding vote. Previously, Karnataka’s cities of Bidar and Gulbarga were controlled by the BJP.
Of 20 Lok Sabha seats in Kerala, six were in the Malabar area and remained with the India Bloc parties; however, the BJP effected its debut in the history of independent India from Trisoor in the state of Kochi.
One of the four Muslim-factored seats in Maharashtra was returned to the India Bloc by the BJP, while the other two remained with the splinter group Shiva Sena.
Ladak, too, witnessed the BJP losing its seat, which an independent candidate went on to win and who has now aligned with the India Bloc.
On the other hand, the scenario remained unchanged in Jammu and Kashmir, Telegana, Uttarkhand, Lakshadweep, Jharkhand, and Gujarat, even though there were a few seats available in these states with a sizable Muslim population.
To sum up: Lok Sabha election results across various states indicate a significant participation of the Muslim population, ranging from 20% to 60%. Their active involvement played a crucial role in the rise of India Bloc parties, alongside the support from backward classes, dalits, and tribals. These groups appeared deeply concerned about the potential removal of job reservations in the government by the BJP. Meanwhile, Muslims were visibly disturbed by the prevailing Islamophobia, which seemed to be openly supported by the ruling party. It is evident that no political party in India can overlook the significance of the 20% of the population if it aims to secure a substantial majority in the 545 seated Lok Sabha.
